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The blogosphere is bubbling with talk of all sorts of new social web apps. Richard McManus over on Read/WriteWeb recently said with good reason, “A lot of people think the social aspect of this era of the Web is its defining characteristic”. Tagging, user generated content, social networks – yes, you’ve heard it all before. It’s a powerful concept that’s starting to reach the masses and generate real revenue (Google investing $900M in advertising on MySpace proves it). For those who are building web apps, there’s a definite whiff of bubble mixed with a sliver of excitement every time the next milestone sign-up figure is reached. But is the market already saturated with products that no-one yet uses? Will it be a survival of the fittest where only a few strong survive, or are niche apps and communities part of the appeal of the medium?

Tom Coates, who works on social media projects at Yahoo! says of the current media interest, “The social aspect of technology rather comes in and out of fashion every three or four years and we’re definitely in the middle of a particularly sizeable peak, which I’ve no doubt makes the whole environment seem particularly over the top. You could probably even describe it as a social media bubble, in as much as there are many more social applications out there (mostly derivatives of a few core ideas) that won’t get any coverage and will probably fail.”

I think Tom’s right, but the problem is that I just don’t have time to use all of these amazing apps, and I’m guessing you might not too. I’m a fairly typical web citizen. I’m 28, married, make a reasonable wage, own a house and I have a few close friends. You’d think I’d be a web app company’s dream, but I’m not. How come?

Too much to do, too little time

I’d love to add friends to my Flickr account, add my links to del.icio.us, browse digg for the latest big stories, customise the content of my Netvibes home page and build a MySpace page. But you know what? I don’t have time and you don’t either…

Like you, I’ve got a million things to do and I’m constantly battling to keep on top of my inbox and RSS reader. The last thing I want to do is add another thing to that already-way-too-long list. Know the feeling? And what’s more, not only are there oodles of apps that I’m simply never going to get to use, even if I did there are so many variants on the same basic theme. Tom suggests this might be a barrier at the moment: “The sheer number of current applications might be why people don’t have time to play with them all and discover how useful they can be. I did a bit of a review recently and discovered that there were way over fifty simple clones of del.icio.us alone out in the world – mostly without the network effects and simple, elegant interfaces that make it useful. Digg has another significant number of clones.”

Now there’s no rule in business that says you can’t take an original idea and make it better – but if a web app doesn’t seriously differentiate from its competitors by slicker technology, more features, better design, I just can’t see the future for it. Take two recent social web apps with a shopping flavor: Crowdstorm and Wists: which one would you choose? And will it link to your other online networks? Who wants to be logging in and out of 20 web apps for all their different needs, and what’s the maximum we could handle? It’s interesting to see what our Summit speakers below are using today…

The most successful social sites right now are ones that have engaged a largely younger audience that is now growing up with tagging, online identity issues and blogging. Maybe the upshot of this is that in ten years’ time MySpace will be the new LinkedIn. One thing’s for sure, in my experience once you get to the “career stage” of your life everthing changes. You’re looking to simplify your life and solve your current problems. In a way, you have to become more selfish with your time. If something doesn’t directly help you, your family, or those you love, it’s probably going to fall to the bottom of your priorities.

We need a new type of web app

I believe there is a huge market for more web apps that are aimed at users like me. We’ve got specific problems that need to be solved and we’re willing to pay good money for solutions. There are a few really good apps that are heading in this direction:

• Basecamp – Helps me organize my life
• LinkedIn – Connects me with people for business networking
• You Tube – Takes the pain out of online video
• Flickr – Enables me to share my life with my mom who lives thousands of miles away

Recent launch buildv1.com also looks interesting.

What do the experts have to say?

But hey, this is just my opinion so what do the experts have to say? I asked some of the leading lights in the web app industry for their opinion and their web app preferences.

1. Are social web apps’ days numbered?
2. What apps do you use on a day-to-day basis?

Here’s what they had to say:

Ted Rheingold – Dogster.com

“Sociality has been a cornerstone feature of the internet since its inception. Right now we’re experiencing the second web iteration of sociality (the first was forums, chats, boards). In coming years today’s social software will seem as lame as forums, chats and boards do now. Deep and immediate sociality will become an integral part of a significant percent of online software and stay that way, whether you are looking at stocks, using design software or listening to music. Sociality hooks will be everywhere.”

Currently uses:

• Dogster
• Catster
• Flickr
• Upcoming
• SonicLiving.com
• MyBlogLog
• Blip.tv

Mike Davidson – Newsvine

“I think the market for pure social apps that exist only to be social apps is limited and always has been. The most successful applications are useful even in the absence of any social features they might have. I like Flickr because it’s a good place to store and organize photos… and oh by the way, there’s a social aspect to it. Same thing with Newsvine, digg, del.icio.us, and every other site out there with a purpose beyond pure social interaction. I think unless you have some substance behind what you’re trying to congregate people around, your days have always been numbered.”

Currently uses:

• Newsvine
• Bloglines
• Mint
• MySpace

Cal Henderson – Flickr

“Social web apps’ days are definately not numbered – the social web app trend is only just starting.”

Currently uses:

• Flickr
• Wikipedia
• Google

Evan Williams – Odeo & Blogger

“The web will increasingly infiltrate how people get stuff done and spend their time. And people need people. So all apps will be social – many more than today. Many companies who build social web apps days are numbered, of course, because they’re not differentiating enough.”

Currently uses:

• Odeo
• Twitter
• Blogger
• Gmail

Tom Coates – Yahoo!

“Social web apps’ days are very much not numbered – there’ll be fads and bubbles but fundamentally the internet is a territory ripe for new ways of interacting, sharing, connecting and collaborating and the use of technologies that support that stuff can only trend upwards. And for those people who say that the social contact becomes overwhelming, I would include within social software any idea that helps ameliorate and deal with the effects of too much social information – just like law mediates and ameliorates the extremes of human agency.”

Currently uses:

• del.icio.us
• Flickr
• World of Warcraft and Travian
• Barbelith, although I don’t have the time to spend there that I once did
• Wikipedia
• Upcoming and MeetWithApproval to help me organise my life a bit

Dick Hardt – Sxip

“Social web apps are just starting, and will expand as it gets easier to move around identity data.”

Currently uses:

• NetNewsWire
• Ecto
• GoogleCalendar
• WordPress

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What do you think?

Please leave your comments and let us know what you think. Social software – overrated, overexposed or only just begun? Where are the really amazing apps for the ‘Busy Professional’ crowd? Please share!

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